I veicoli a idrogeno avranno un ruolo chiave nella mobilità del futuro con importati prospettive di crescita e sviluppo nei prossimi decenni. Se ne è discusso nello scorso fine settimane a Catania nel corso del convegno ‘Smart&Slow: la visione della mobilità del futuro‘ promossa dall’ANCI, dal Ministero dell’Ambiente e dallo stesso Comune di Catania. L’evento come parte della II Conferenza nazionale sulla Mobilità Sostenibile ha affrontato vari aspetti in tema di infrastrutture, mobilità a zero emissioni e coinvolgimento territoriale.
Mobilità a zero emissioni
La mobilità a zero emissioni è stato uno dei temi portati del convegno Smart&Slow . In questo settore sono in molti ormai a ritenere che il futuro prossimo sarà caratterizzato dalla coesistenza di tecnologie differenti orientate a soddisfare le diverse richieste del mercato.
In questo contesto da un lato ci sono l’alimentazione elettrica pura e l’alimentazione ibrida, due tecnologie già affermate e industrialmente mature che in alcuni mercati –si pensi alla Norvegia– rappresentano già una aliquota rilevante del parco circolante. Dall’altro lato invece emergono nuove soluzioni tecniche che nei prossimi anni potrebbero raggiungere uno sviluppo tecnico ed una convenienza economica tali da accelerarne l’adozione. I veicoli a idrogeno appartengono proprio a questa seconda casistica con la tecnologia fuel cell che pare oggi in grado di superare gli ostacoli tecnici che in passato ne hanno limitato l’adozione.
Una lunga storia quella dei veicoli a idrogeno nata addirittura nell’Ottocento con i primi progetti di motori a combustione interna alimentati da una miscela di idrogeno ed ossigeno. È però in tempi molto più recenti che l’idrogeno è tornato a ritagliarsi un ruolo primario nel campo della mobilità. La pila a combustibile (fuel cell) rappresenta infatti una delle soluzioni attualmente migliori per realizzare veicoli elettrici ad elevata autonomia.
Questo genere di dispositivo elettrochimico utilizza l’idrogeno per produrre energia elettrica in grado di alimentare un normale motore elettrico. Rispetto all’alimentazione a batteria esistono almeno due ordini di vantaggi: un’automobile fuel cell può avere una autonomia molto elevata in funzione della quantità di idrogeno che è possibile trasportare nei serbatoi; l’uso della pila a combustibile permette di usare poche batterie riducendo il peso dei veicoli e di conseguenza anche la relativa richiesta di energia.
Fino a 8,5 milioni di veicoli a idrogeno nel 2050
Sulle prospettive dei veicoli a idrogeno al convegno Smart&Slow è stata presentata la proposta di Piano Nazionale per la Mobilità a Idrogeno, un programma pluriennale che delinea lo sviluppo del settore in Italia nei prossimi decenni. Alla stesura del piano ha contribuito anche Mobilità Idrogeno Italia (MH2IT), una organizzazione che riunisce i principali soggetti del settore. Nelle previsioni del Governo il piano dovrebbe essere presentato alla Commissione Europea nell’ambito delle direttive comunitarie sullo sviluppo dei combustibili alternativi.
Proprio in vista del convegno, Alberto Dossi Presidente del MH2IT ha illustrato alcune delle cifre più più portati del Piano Nazionale per la Mobilità a Idrogeno. Lo sviluppo di questo settore seguirà una curva a crescita progressiva che stima in circa un migliaio i veicoli a idrogeno circolanti entro il 2020. Già cinque anni più tardi si prevede il raggiungimento di uno stock di circa 27.000 veicoli pari allo 0,1% del parco circolante in Italia). Le previsioni vedono quindi il mercato in rapida crescita con circa 290.000 veicoli a idrogeno circolanti nel 2030 ed un potenziale di 8,5 milioni nel 2050 (20% circa del parco circolante).
Il settore della mobilità personale è però solo uno dei campi in cui esiste un elevato potenziale per l’idrogeno. Il trasporto pubblico in particolare potrebbe trarre grandi vantaggi dalla conversione all’idrogeno soprattutto in termini di riduzione delle emissioni. Questo settore inoltre potrebbe contribuire in maniera decisiva a creare la massa critica necessaria a rendere sostenibile l’economia dell’idrogeno.
Sempre MH2IT stima che nel trasporto pubblico l’introduzione di autobus fuel cell potrebbe partire con un blocco di un centinaio di unità entro il 2020 per poi raggiungere le 1100 unità nel 2025 e le 3700 nel 2030. Nella prospettiva del 2050 gli autobus FCEV potrebbero arrivare alla soglia delle 23 mila unità.
Sia per le auto che per gli autobus la progressione dei numeri tiene conto dello sviluppo tecnologico atteso nei prossimi anni. La tecnologia fuel cell appare avere ampi margini di miglioramento nettamente superiori rispetto a quelli dei motori tradizionali. Assieme a questi progressi migliorerà la convenienza economica dei veicoli a idrogeno e si ridurrà progressivamente la necessità del sostegno pubblico.
La rete di distribuzione per i veicoli a idrogeno
Per la diffusione dei veicoli a idrogeno un tassello fondamentale sarà la realizzazione di una nuova rete di distribuzione in grado di garantire il rifornimento ai vicoli circolanti. Il Piano Nazionale per la Mobilità a Idrogeno prevede una progressiva espansione delle rete fino a raggiungere le 5000 stazioni nel 2050.
Nella fase iniziale di sviluppo della rete si seguirà un modello ‘captive fleet’ che prevede l’introduzione di flotte per autovetture ed autobus in grado di garantire un opportuno fattore di carico a ciascuna stazione di rifornimento.
Già allo stato attuale una autovetture ad idrogeno è in grado di percorrere un centinaio di chilometri con 1 kg di idrogeno producendo come sottoprodotto soltanto vapore acqueo. L’autonomia supera facilmente i 500 km con un pieno ed il rifornimento richiede anche meno di 5 minuti. Numeri che esprimono bene la fiducia che ruota attorno alla mobilità ad idrogeno.
L’idrogeno contro i cambiamenti climatici
L’impiego dell’idrogeno nel settore della mobilità è anche da inquadrare nell’insieme di misure per il contrasto ai cambiamenti climatici fissati dagli accordi della COP21 di Parigi. In particolare la diffusione di veicoli elettrici, ibridi e fuel cell è parte importate degli impegni alla riduzione delle emissioni in atmosfera.
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