Temperature medie +4,2° C previste entro il 2100

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Lo abbiamo sentito ripetere dagli esperti migliaia di volte: l’unico modo per evitare delle catastrofi ambientali molto gravi è che le temperature globali medie non salgano per più di 2° C. rispetto ad oggi. Il problema è che pare che le speranze di raggiungere questo obiettivo vadano assottigliandosi ogni giorno che passa.

In vista del prossimo round di negoziati sul clima che porteranno verso il COP16 di Cancun a fine anno, gli impegni sulla riduzione delle emissioni assunti nel quadro di Copenaghen si sono dimostrati così deboli che, se non venissero rafforzati, ci metterebbero su una traiettoria di aumento della temperatura fino a 4,2° C entro il 2100. La prima e più diretta conseguenza sarebbe la certezza della scomparsa delle barriere coralline a causa dell’acidificazione degli oceani. Ad affermarlo è un gruppo di scienziati europei (tedeschi, olandesi, svizzeri e danesi) che hanno pubblicato il loro studio nell’ultimo numero della rivista di divulgazione scientifica Environmental Research Letters.

Il cuore delle loro conclusioni è che

anche se le nazioni fossero d’accordo su una riduzione del 50% dei livelli di emissioni entro il 2050 – un obiettivo forte che gli accordi internazionali faciliterebbero molto – ci sarebbe soltanto una probabilità inferiore al 50% di mantenere il riscaldamento globale sotto i 2° C.

Secondo gli scienziati, attualmente, tra le nazioni ad alta emissione di gas serra, solo il Giappone e la Norvegia si sono impegnate in qualcosa di più rispetto alle riduzioni nocive, con i nipponici che hanno promesso di tagliare del 25% le loro emissioni rispetto al 1990, mentre gli scandinavi parlando di almeno un 30-40%.

Concludono i ricercatori:

E’ chiaro da questa analisi che maggiori ambizioni per il 2020 sono necessarie per mantenere le opzioni dei 2° C e 1,5° C di aumento della temperatura aperti senza fare affidamento su tassi di riduzione potenzialmente infattibili dopo il 2020. Inoltre, la mancanza di un obiettivo di emissioni alla metà del secolo – che nel complesso può funzionare come metro per capire se le riduzioni provvisorie entro il 2020 e il 2030 sono la strada giusta – è un deficit critico nel generale livello di ambizione dell’accordo di Copenaghen.

Fonte: [Treehugger]

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