La grande istituzione scientifica della Royal Society ha pubblicato una revisione completa delle possibilità dell’ingegneria climatica per invertire il riscaldamento globale. Il riesame renderà difficile per i Governi riuscire ad ignorare il problema. Si dice che mentre la riduzione delle emissioni di gas a effetto serra “assolutamente” devono rimanere una priorità, ci sono una serie di possibilità che questa non sarà sufficiente per tenere il riscaldamento globale al di sotto dei 2 ° C.
La mia ipotesi è che c’è una possibilità del 50% che si possa ottenere qualcosa con la riduzione delle emissioni
spiega John Shepherd dell’Università di Southampton nel Regno Unito, presidente del gruppo Royal Society e autore della relazione. Se l’umanità vuole evitare gli effetti peggiori del cambiamento climatico, deve essere pronta a distribuire in modo sicuro i metodi di geoingegneria come e quando necessario. Secondo Shepherd abbiamo già raggiunto un incremento di 1,6° C.
Egli è convinto che dovremmo sapere che nei prossimi due decenni, se gli sforzi non saranno sufficienti, non riusciremmo a ridurre le emissioni per evitare i 2 ° C di surriscaldamento. In caso contrario, la sua personale opinione è che dobbiamo essere preparati per un piano B.
Fase uno: costruire una sorta di “schermo parasole“, per deviare l’energia solare a distanza dalla Terra. La tecnologia riflettente potrebbe raffreddare il pianeta entro un anno, e secondo i risultati della Royal Society il metodo più promettente in termini di costi e di efficacia sarebbe pompare le particelle di solfati nella stratosfera. Tuttavia, questo non frenerà l’acidificazione degli oceani e altri effetti collaterali delle emissioni di gas serra, e potrebbe interferire con i modelli meteo, quindi un altro metodo è obbligatorio.
Fase due: mettere in atto un mezzo per aspirare l’anidride carbonica dall’atmosfera. Diversi metodi sono già oggetto di indagine, i quali rientrano in generale in due categorie: soluzioni altamente tecnologiche, come gli alberi artificiali che filtrano l’aria ed immagazinano CO2, e metodi biologici, come piantare alberi (veri), utilizzare i biocarburanti e concimare gli oceani.
Secondo Shepherd i metodi tecnologici sono preferibili perché hanno meno probabilità di interferire con gli ecosistemi complessi. Spiega infatti che:
La maggior parte delle cose che sono andate male in passato sono accadute quando abbiamo manomesso i sistemi biologici.
I metodi di geoingegneria sono stati finora ai margini delle discussioni del clima e della ricerca. Pochi sono stati sviluppati o testati su larga scala. La relazione della Royal Society invita il governo del Regno Unito ad investire 10 milioni di sterline l’anno per uno sforzo di ricerca internazionale nella geoingegneria. Ciò equivale a circa il 10% del bilancio per la ricerca sul clima del Regno Unito.
Un’altra questione irrisolta è l’accordo su come regolamentare gli sforzi della geoingegneria. La Royal Society propone che la Commissione delle Nazioni Unite per lo sviluppo sostenibile se ne occupi il prima possibile. Essa suggerisce inoltre che la Convenzione quadro dell’ONU sui cambiamenti climatici dovrebbe istituire un gruppo di lavoro. L’obiettivo sarà che non solo il Regno Unito, ma almeno tutto il mondo civilizzato possa contribuire agli sforzi di geoingegneria.
La Royal Society spera che questi provvedimenti non porteranno le persone a pensare che non c’è più bisogno di ridurre le emissioni, ma che servano da stimolo alle persone per agire e combattere il cambiamento climatico.
Fonte: [Newscientist]
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