Sognare un mondo 100% rinnovabile è un conto, fare i conti di quanto e cosa occorre per togliere l’etichetta utopia alla completa sostituzione del fossile con le energie pulite da qui al 2030, è un calcolo ben più complesso del semplice fantasticare con occhi verdi. Ci hanno pensato Mark Delucchi dell’Università della California e Mark Jacobson di Stanford, pubblicando sulla rivista Energy Policy la lista della spesa per un Pianeta che vada solo ad eolico, ad acqua e a solare.
Attualmente l’apporto delle rinnovabili si attesta al 13% contro un 80% di energia che ancora proviene dai combustibili fossili. Impensabile quindi sperare in una rivoluzione energetica in chiave rinnovabile di facile attuazione. Eppure visto così, nero su bianco, tutto ciò che serve, non la fa sembrare un’impresa poi così titanica: basta qualche milione di turbine eoliche, un 90 mila centrali solari e la pillola amara del petrolio torna giù, in quegli abissi dove sporco non è.
Per l’esattezza un mondo che punti al 100% rinnovabile entro il 2030 dovrebbe dotarsi di:
- 4 milioni di turbine eoliche da 5 megawatt;
- 90mila grandi centrali solari da 300 megawatt, sia del tipo fotovoltaico che a concentrazione;
- 1,7 miliardi di piccoli pannelli fotovoltaici da 3 chilowatt da installare sui tetti di tutte le case del pianeta.
E ancora centrali geotermiche ed impianti per lo sfruttamento dell’energia delle onde.
Nel carrello dei due utopici calcolatori, a sorpresa, non figurano né il nucleare né la biomassa, il che è alquanto strano dal momento che oggi forniscono rispettivamene il 6 e il 10 per cento dell’energia mondiale (eolico e solare insieme raggiungono quota 3%).
Volevamo dimostrare che vento, sole e acqua presenti sul pianeta sono sufficienti a soddisfare la domanda di energia e che il problema principale è solo la volontà politica. L’obiettivo potrebbe essere raggiunto entro il 2030, ma più realisticamente entro questa data si potrebbe smettere di produrre nuove centrali a combustibili fossili, mentre in altri 20 si potrebbe completare lo ‘switch’ alle energie verdi.
Per passare alle rinnovabili occorreranno reti intelligenti, impianti di stoccaggio e… risposte pronte alle obiezioni comuni che frenano una rivoluzione green: in primis, vento e sole non sono energie discontinue? Prese separatamente sì, ma insieme lavorano benissimo:
Normalmente una giornata con poco vento è soleggiata, e viceversa.
E poi non c’è da considerare il problema dei costi? Da qui a 20 anni scenderanno. E comunque se si considera il costo sociale, ambientale e per la salute pubblica dei fossili, sono già molto molto più economiche.
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