Se la vostra regione di residenza ha un clima caldo e umido e diversi tipi di uccelli e mammiferi che vi vivono, c’è una probabilità molto alta che la zona conterrà anche numerose specie di agenti patogeni che causano le più svariate patologie.
Un nuovo studio esamina la geografia delle malattie umane. Si tratta di una ricerca guidata dal dottor Rob Dunn della North Carolina State University, a fianco di un team internazionale di biologi e scienziati sociali, che dimostra come si possa prevedere il numero di tipi di agenti patogeni che causano malattie in una regione solo conoscendone il clima o il numero di uccelli e mammiferi che vi si trovano.
“Sono tanti i fattori, afferma Dunn, che influiscono sulla diversità e la quantità di agenti patogeni in una data regione: densità, numero di abitanti, il numero di anni che è stata abitata, la spesa pubblica per il controllo delle malattie. Ognuno di questi ha indubbiamente una certa influenza, ma l’ambiente è dominante.”
“Noi immaginiamo di avere sotto controllo la natura, ma nessuno sembra averlo detto alla natura”, ha proseguito Dunn. “L’ambiente e, nel suo senso più ampio la natura, determinano il numero di tipi di malattie in varie regioni del mondo in misura ancora maggiore di come hanno influenzato il numero di specie di uccelli, mammiferi, formiche o api.”
Ma mentre l’ambiente determina il numero di malattie che si trovano in una regione, non determina la loro diffusione, più o meno ampia. I ricercatori hanno anche esaminato i fattori correlati alla prevalenza degli agenti patogeni umani in tutto il mondo e hanno scoperto che il fattore più importante è la spesa sanitaria, in particolare le spese per il controllo delle malattie.
“Da un lato, le spese per la prevenzione delle malattie non sono molto efficaci a modificare il numero dei tipi di agenti patogeni presenti, perchè quel numero è strettamente correlato alle condizioni ambientali. I capricci del clima e della vita su cui abbiamo poco controllo stabiliscono quali malattie si è a rischio di prendere in una certa regione del mondo” ha spiegato Dunn. “Ma d’altra parte, possiamo controllare la prevalenza degli agenti patogeni spendendo di più per iniziative di controllo delle malattie. E’ la diffusione delle malattie che influenza la salute umana ed il benessere”.
La ricerca è stata pubblicata on-line dal Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: B, rivista specializzata in biologia.
Lo studio ha esaminato una serie di fattori ritenuti importanti nella distribuzione globale degli organismi portatori di malattie. Il clima e le variabili geografiche, i dati sulla popolazione, i dati sul controllo delle malattie, i dati sugli agenti patogeni e i dati della storia umana sono stati tutti inseriti in modelli statistici che hanno tentato di mostrare i fattori che avevano più forti correlazioni con le malattie.
Le regioni geografiche con molti diversi tipi di uccelli e mammiferi sono correlate con la presenza di molteplici agenti patogeni. La spiegazione più probabile per questo rapporto è semplicemente che siano stati gli stessi fattori ambientali ad influenzare i modelli nella diversità di agenti patogeni umani così come hanno fatto con i modelli nella diversità degli altri esseri viventi, tra cui gli uccelli ed i mammiferi.
La riduzione della biodiversità di uccelli e mammiferi, tuttavia, non ridurrebbe le malattie, afferma Dunn. In realtà, rendere gli uccelli selvatici ed i mammiferi più rari può solo accrescere la diversità delle malattie umane, perchè le malattie che affliggono mammiferi ed uccelli sarebbero fin troppo ansiose di saltare giù dalla nave che affonda e passare ad infettare l’uomo.
Ma non tutto è perduto se si vive in climi caldi e umidi con un sacco di uccelli e mammiferi intorno. Dunn prende come esempio la vita negli Stati Uniti. La malaria è presente ma rara e relativamente insignificante a causa di un impegno storico del paese per controllarne la diffusione.
“In breve, gli Stati Uniti hanno un gran numero di diversi tipi di agenti patogeni, spiega Dunn, ma la prevalenza degli agenti patogeni è bassa a causa di un impegno storico prodigato nel controllo delle malattie.”
I ricercatori suggeriscono anche i modi per ottimizzare le spese future. In particolare, i luoghi in cui la spesa attuale è bassa e le popolazioni sono di grandi dimensioni possono essere luoghi dove la maggior parte delle persone sarà salvata solo se si compieranno ulteriori sforzi – ad esempio l’India, il Pakistan e le nazioni dell’Africa orientale lungo l’equatore.
“L’attuale spesa sanitaria è molto bassa, la prevalenza di agenti patogeni è molto elevata, e le popolazioni umane sono di grandi dimensioni in queste zone, quindi ha senso indirizzare gli sforzi lì”, ha concluso Dunn.
[Fonte: North Carolina State University (2010, April 15). Geography of human disease: Environment has much to do with surrounding pathogens. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 16, 2010, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2010/04/100415080854.htm]
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